Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming Hold Primaries, But No Congressional Cliffhangers on August 20th Ballots

Is RCV is poised to rob Alaska of a Republican seat again? In Florida, Matt Gaetz faces a primary opponent baked by Kevin McCarthy.

Three states hold primaries tomorrow, but none of their races are tight.  The real election battles are general election contests.

ALASKA

Alaska At-Large Congressional Seat: Nicholas Begich and Nancy Dahlstrom  
Alaska’s At-Large Congressional seat is the most Republican seat of any seat currently held by a Democrat. The only reason Rep. Mary Peltola holds it is because Alaska passed Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) in 2020. (Ranked Choice Voting was pushed into state law in 2020 ahead of U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski facing reelection in 2022.) In a Republican majority district like Alaska, RCV all but guarantees that two strong Republican candidates will make it to the general election ballot to face just one strong Democrat contender. In 2022, while Republican candidates Sarah Palin and Nick Begich together accumulated more than 50% of the total vote, under RCV’s method of eliminating last place candidates and reassigning votes, Democrat Mary Peltola won the seat.

This year, Republicans may face a similar loss since Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom decided to challenge the leading Republican contender, Nick Begich, in the open primary. While Nick Begich is the nephew of a former Alaska Democrat Senator Mark Begich, the political resemblance ends there.  Nick Begich was  raised as a conservative Christian, rock-ribbed Republican by his grandparents in Florida. Sarah Palin isn’t running and the stage was set for one strong Republican to face off against the one strong Democrat, Peltola.

Unfortunately, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom decided to join the race. Dahlstrom is running as a MAGA Republican and has been endorsed by D.C. Republican leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Steve Scalise, as well as the Alaska Republican governor. Begich is endorsed by conservative leaders such as Senator Mike Lee, Rep. Bob Good, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Rep. Byron Donalds, and by a multitude of local state Republican leaders. In June, President Trump endorsed Dahlstrom, although Dahlstrom admitted publicly that she hadn’t personally spoken to Trump at that time.

Under Alaska’s RCV system, it is a forgone conclusion that both Begich and Dahlstrom will advance to the November general election along with Peltola and a much weaker fourth candidate. The question is, which Republican will amass more votes, and will the Republican who finishes second agree to drop out and endorse the leading Republican? Begich has said he will withdraw to ensure Alaska regains its Republican Congressional seat. Dahlstrom has waffled on the issue when asked. Alaskans should vote for Begich and Dahlstrom, and not rank Peltola as a choice on their ballot. Both Begich and Dahlstrom will advance to the general election as the top four finishers all advance.

FLORIDA

U.S. Senator Rick Scott is up for reelection this year in Florida, however, he has no substantial primary opposition having far outspent his two largely unknown primary opponents. In the general election, Scott is expected to face former Member of Congress Debbie Mucarsel-Powell who lost her one-term suburban Miami seat in 2020.

None of Florida’s leading MAGA Members of Congress face significant challenges with the exception of Matt Gaetz, and even then, Gaetz should easily win re-nomination.

Fl01 Matt Gaetz  On the last day of filing, Aaron Dimmock filed to run against Rep. Matt Gaetz. Dimmock, who works remotely for the state of Missouri, was obviously recruited to run. Dimmock is supported by former Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy whose ouster as Speaker was led by Gaetz. (Kevin McCarthy has targeted other Members of Congress who voted against him as Speaker including House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good of Virginia and Nancy Mace of North Carolina. Bob Good narrowly lost his primary, while Nancy Mace won her primary.) Unfortunately for Kevin McCarthy and the millions of dollars spent to support Dimmock, Matt Gaetz remains popular in his conservative Pensacola district (Gaetz beat his 2022 primary opponent by a landslide.) and is wholeheartedly endorsed by President Trump. Gaetz is expected to easily win this Tuesday’s primary race.

A caution about Florida: Florida has seen a Republican registration surge in past years. That bodes well for Florida and the general election. Floridians, however, will face six statewide ballot amendments in the November general election – ballot amendments designed to draw low propensity voters to the polls, either to support or oppose a ballot measure.  In November, Florida voters will be asked to vote on ballot amendments affecting school boards, hunting and fishing rights, marijuana legalization, abortion, property taxes, and campaign financing.  With so many ‘hot button’ issues on the ballot, it is unclear whether extremely high Democratic turnout could swing the Florida U.S Senate race. Opponents of Amendment 4 ( to add the right to an abortion to the Florida state constitution) are organizing and working hard to educate and register voters. Now is the time to find a grassroots organization in your area and volunteer. It’s the best way to meet your likeminded America First neighbors and make a difference.

WYOMING

Wyoming, a solid Republican majority state, does not have a close primary for either the U.S. Senate race or Wyoming’s one Congressional At Large seat.

U.S. Senator John Barasso faces no significant primary opposition.

WY At Large: Harriet Hageman