January 14, 2024
GOP Bellweather Early Primaries
The November election is still ten months away, but the process to determine who appears on that ballot is starting in the next month with three major primaries. These primaries will determine the candidates’ momentum across all the states leading to the nomination in Milwaukee in July. Donald Trump is far ahead in the polls, but he needs his expected lead to materialize.
As most know, the first state in the primary season is Iowa. Iowa awards its delegates through the process of a caucus – not by a quick primary election vote. Polls predicting caucus results are tricky, because the ground organization could deliver something entirely different.
In Iowa, any registered voter can participate in Iowa’s state caucus, but it is time consuming. Participants of the caucus must show up Monday night, January 15th, where the caucus will proceed with a slew of procedural votes to determine the rules that will govern the caucus, a caucus chair, and more. Finally, the caucus will turn to vote for the candidates. Late arrivals are usually not admitted to a caucus.
Caucus Results Are Harder to Predict Than Primary Elections
Iowa’s bitter winter weather makes caucus predictions even harder.
A number of factors could affect the caucus results, from each campaign’s local organization on the ground to encourage supporters to participate in the lengthy caucus night to extreme weather conditions that will almost certainly suppress turnout, especially from older voters who tend to favor Trump. Ensuring a strong Trump turnout is very important and should not be taken for granted.
What About Ron DeSantis?
It’s clear that the uniparty has shifted support away from under-performing Ron DeSantis to Nikki Haley. With the MAGA vote behind Trump and centrist/uniparty types turning to Haley, DeSantis needs to seek votes from somewhere. This might be one reason DeSantis has allegedly been encouraging Democrats to vote for him in Iowa’s Republican caucus, adding further twist to Monday’s caucus.
Vivek Ramaswamy claimed on Saturday that the best way to support Trump is to vote for Vivek, the latest attempt by Vivek to position himself as a solid Trump supporter while at the same time trying to siphon votes away from Trump. Vivek’s effort will fail.
Trump should win Iowa, but the caucus results could end up tighter than the polls predict if caucus turnout is low.
The Next Consequential Primary After Iowa is New Hampshire
The Media Can Be Expected to Aggressively Promote Uniparty Nikki Haley in New Hampshire
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire polls, Nikki Haley is gaining on Trump, and now Chris Christie’s supporters are up for grabs. Trump is still the predicted winner of the state’s January 23rd primary, but New Hampshire likes to be a wild card, and any vote surge for Nikki Haley will be hyped by the mainstream media to attack Trump.
Flying under the radar is Nevada’s upcoming Republican caucus on February 8th, since attention is on South Carolina with twice as many delegates. Each state Republican Party can adopt slightly different rules to select its RNC delegates. Unlike Iowa’s caucus rules, registered Republican voters in Nevada can stay for the whole caucus meeting or cast their secret ballot vote and leave.
Nevada residents can find the Nevada GOP caucus rules here:
South Carolina Will Be a Major Showdown Between Trump and Haley
The final state of the three most crucial early primary states is South Carolina on February 24th.
South Carolina is Nikki Haley’s home turf. She is the former governor of South Carolina. Alarmingly, Haley is already being floated as Trump’s VP running mate. Thankfully, the MAGA grassroots are reacting strongly in opposition to Haley on Trump’s ticket, but the larger Trump’s lead against her in all of these early primaries the less likely Trump will be pressured to align with neocon Haley.
What Are Each State’s Republican Presidential Primary Rules?
Whatever state you live in, each state’s Republican Party website can be found by searching the state name followed by ‘GOP’.
Iowa caucus voters, for example, can find all the caucus information they need at the Iowa GOP site. When arriving at the caucus, (arrive early—by 6:30 P.M.) find the person serving as the Trump campaign “Caucus Captain.” Sit with the Trump group and vote the same way the Trump caucus captain directs on all the procedural votes and for Donald Trump’s delegates. Attending a caucus is exciting and a great way to meet like-minded conservatives from your area.
A Helpful Website to View the 50 States’ Primary Selection Schedule and the Attendance Rules For Each States
NBC News has a page with an easy to navigate 2024 Primary Elections Calendar.
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